The Blue is Back

A few points on the Snider – Lincoln Trade, and by association the Thames – Delabar deal  -
1) Sadness.  Not sad in the way that you’re sad when your favorite player/team’s best player gets moved ie. Alomar after ’95, but sad in how things played out for the guy.  The promise was there, the talent was there, looked like despite what was said, the attitude came around, yet he never really got a chance here. Im sad and disappointed that we never got to see him sink or swim after being given a REAL chance with this team.

2) Anger.  Thames, Lewis, Patterson, Rajai, Rivera…are among the guys played in front of Snider.  Come on. I cant help but think that if it were Snider, who had been given the LF job out of the spring, and you can’t say he didn’t earn it, he would have cemented the position by now. Instead, we watched Eric Thames chase down balls in LF after taking terrible routes, miss cut-off men, and overall just play terrible D, while never delivering the “promise” that we were told was in his bat.  What was the point of that experiment?  That’s what angers me the most. Snider had better talent, better D, higher upside. Why go with Thames, when Snider had played just as well (or poorly) all through the “battle”, going back to 2011.  Now Thames is gone too, having gotten the chance that Snider never did.

3) Shift in AA Philosophy? We’ve always heard AA say that bullpen guys can be great one year, terrible the next. That, along with the old CBA draft pick comp rules, was the reason he signed veteran relief arms to short-term deals to build his bullpen. With trading 2 players (well, 1) with great upside, for long-term, controllable, relief arms, is this an about face from AA about his failed philosophy?   I guess he has traded for relief arms before…Napoli for Francisco, Molina for Santos…uhhh…

I am happy for Travis, and hope he moves on, gets the chance he never got here, and is successful. We couldn’t have gone on with a bullpen consisting of the likes of Crawford, Carreno, Dyson, Loup, Beck…when some of those guys are clearly not/never will be ready for prime time. Getting some arms back is good…but I wouldve rather let the candle burn out on Travis, while giving him his real shot, than take this return for him. I really don’t like this trade. I really don’t like it.

So 16 Games in, the Blue Jays are 10-6, Tied for first in the AL East.  Eric Thames won the Left Field job in spring, although it was not really a battle, since Thames was the incumbent, and the job was all but his to lose. His start has been shaky, both at the plate and in the field, and you hear snippets here and there about the guy he ‘beat out’ for that Left Field job…you know the guy that we’re not really allowed to talk about, Travis Snider, he of the .414/.481/.729/1.210 slash line playing for “your” Las Vegas 51′s.

If you were allowed to talk about him you’d be met with “its the PCL”  “Its Vegas”  “He’s repeating the level”  “its early” “Hes always hit well in AAA”…

If you were allowed to talk realistically about Thames you’d be met with “He ‘won’ the job, give him a longer look” “Its early” “His D is improved”  “Hes Working Hard”   “He has a great attitude”   “He played well last year”   “He’s only made a few bad plays on D”  “Its early”  “Small Sample Size” …

To me, the deciding factor is the fact they pull him out of LF in the 7th when they’re up.  Unless you’re putting up Bautista like numbers, you shouldn’t be on the team as a non-DH if you have such defensive liabilities and managerial mistrust.  As such, I’d rather see Snider up here, and not limit what we can do in the late innings with Rajai, who is often wasted as a defensive replacement.  Snider definitely has the better upside, and its no less than a tossup as to whether he’d be hitting as well as Thames.

If we were allowed to start talking about him, i’d say Snider should never have had the job taken away from him last year (Thames and him had very similar numbers at the time of Snider’s demotion), played well enough to win the job this year, and should be the starting Left Fielder for the Blue Jays right now.

But…We’re not allowed to talk about him. So…Go Thames.

Well, I didn't really want to keep going with the He's a New Man series, but a scan of recent articles uncovered something that was too easy.  The National Post's "Sergio Santos is a Changed Man", from last week.  By now, I think we all know the story...Former Blue Jay farmhand, acquired in the Troy Glaus deal, played SS, sucked, moved to the mound, now doesn't suck.  Given his progression, and numbers he put up last year, this was heralded as one of the best trades by any GM of the Offseason.  The Genius, Alex Anthopoulos, swooped in and acquired Santos for Nestor Molina, who depending on what prospect geek you believe, is either a top of the rotation starter, or bullpen fodder. Either way, the Blue Jays dealt from their treasure trove of pitching prospects and acquired a guy who is 28, on an upward progression, and under club control for the next six seasons.  In a trade that didn't make much sense from the White Sox rebuild point of view, Kenny Williams traded a guy under long-term club control, who just finished a season with 30 Saves, a WHIP just over 1.1 and an unbelievable K/9 ratio of 13.1, Sergio Santos misses a lot of bats, and has the chance to be very good.

While I know that every Spring Training brings new hope, and it has been said that the optimism in Blue Jays camp this year is unrivaled, I think its time for this city's baseball writers to stop with the He's a New Man "stories".  It's not to say if I were escaping the last of the Toronto winter, heading to 70 degree temperatures with the sun glaring down on me, I wouldn't be thinking everything and everyone is great and new, and things are perfect, but can we relax a bit?  Things are no better or no worse now than they were a month ago when Prince signed with Detroit, or two months ago when AA missed out on Mat Latos and Gio Gonzalez, and everything sucked in Blue Jay land.  I've never met the guy personally, and other than the fact that his wife pretty damned good looking (Thanks, Google Images), I can't say whether or not Sergio Santos is a changed man.  I don't think any writer can.  What we do know is that with every player who is apparently a new man, things will play out over the year.  The takeaway here is that, despite what the writers say, things are never as good as they seem, or bad as they seem.  The Jays remain a team with a lot of young talent, and a lot of If's. Sergios Santos is one of them.  If he continues his progression, we will have the first elite closer we've had since Duane Ward.  If not, well...we'll be looking the new "new man".

As they say, Hope Springs Eternal, and to that end, there were 242342 different (the same) articles in the Toronto (and presumably, St. Louis) newspapers this weekend about the eternal spring training hope that Colby Rasmus is a new man.  Following the array of Brett Cecil is a new (thin) man articles, The Toronto Star, Toronto Sun, National Post, and Globe and Mail, discussed the merits of Colby’s new attitude, new swing, and new haircut, based upon his 12-minute media scrum on Friday.

We’ve heard the St. Louis story told a number of times, the one that says Colby came up with a sense of entitlement, that he rubbed teammates the wrong way, that he didn’t do things the Tony La Russa way.  There were the stories that he didn’t listen to his coaches, that his dad was constantly in his ear, swaying him away from the advice of hitting coach Mark McGwire.  There was the hugely successful Colby Rasmus of 2010 who OPS’d .859 as a 23-year old.  Then there was the severely messed up Colby Rasmus who played his way off the eventual World Series Champions, although getting a $250k World Series share and a ring, onto the up and coming Blue Jays team, where he again struggled, hitting just .173 in 33 games after the trade.

So now, after 12-minutes of candid talk, Colby Rasmus is a new man.  He addressed the stories, the La Russa debacle, the relationship with his teammates in St. Louis, likening himself to a new puppy, to whom the veterans took it upon themselves to teach new tricks.  He discussed his relationship with his dad, noting his dad’s propensity to dwell on the negative. And he discussed his new beginning with the Blue Jays, noting that Jose Bautista’s leadership style lends well to an atmosphere of hard work, humility, happy vibes, and treating everyone right.  The nagging concern to Jays fans will be fixing his swing the Blue Jay way, without input from his Dad.  To that end, Colby spoke of the 2-day session with Hitting Coach Dwayne Murphy, “We looked at my swing for a couple of days, hitting the ball, so we can bang heads during the season, but just me and him, and no one else.” The and no one else part will be key here, and it remains to be seen if he has learned his lesson, and will listen to Murphy in a way he, allegedly, never did with McGwire.

To be honest, at first glance, this guy seems to be a head case. The messed up kid with the messed up family with a messed up personality that struggles to fit in.  Digging deeper, though, you can’t help feel for the guy.  Good people are put in bad situations, and with the eyes of the world focusing in when trying to navigate that situation, can’t be easy.   While the articles this weekend do well to paint Colby Rasmus as a new man, which seems to be the early theme this spring, his candid responses point to the fact that he’s the same guy, in a new situation with a new awareness.  It seems that many of his personal ills will simply be fixed by the change of scenery, and the realization that listening to his coach, not his dad, will not only endear him to his new team, but also lead to success in the bigs.  So…Is Colby Rasmus a new man? Like a lot of these ‘feel good’ springtime stories, it remains to be seen.

Per Wikipedia, Mardi gras is French for Fat Tuesday, referring to the practice of the last night of eating richer, fatty foods before the ritual fasting of the Lenten season.  From the picture above taken yesterday, it looks like Jesse Litsch (Middle) has been indulging in richer, fatty foods all winter.  Brett Cecil (Left), on the other hand, was the antithesis of Fat on Tuesday, as he has dropped a cool 32 lbs and looks to be more in shape than ever. Cecil is looking to solidify a spot in the rotation in 2012, following a season where he struggled with his velocity, and was sent to AAA Las Vegas for a period.  While he finished the season 4-11 with a 4.73 ERA and 1.326 WHIP, the ERA and WHIP numbers were not terribly worse than his 2010 season when he finished 15-10 with a 4.22 ERA and an identical 1.326 WHIP, and was anointed a rotation mainstay.  Looking a K and BB rates, there’s not a huge discrepancy there either, 6.3K/9 in 2011 vs. 6.1K/9 in 2010, and 3.1BB/9 in 2011 vs 2.8BB/9 in 2010.  What does this say about Brett Cecil in 2012? It’s definitely hard to predict using statistical analysis given the fact that he’s apparently a new man, in the best shape of his life.  Furthermore, there always seems to be something unpredictable about Brett Cecil around this time of year.  In 2010, he sliced his finger doing God knows what in the kitchen, which landed him on the DL, but when he returned, he was forced to throw more fastballs and changeups, while relying less on his curve.  This led to his 15 win season and a mastery of the AL East.  In 2011, it was the mystery of his velocity, or lack thereof. He was never consistently able to get his fastball up to the 92-94 range, in which it had previously been, but stayed in the mid-upper 80′s for much of the season, leading to his 11-loss season and a demotion to AAA. Now 2012 brings us a new, thin, and in shape Brett Cecil.  Will the velocity come back? Will he regain his 2010 form? That remains to be seen.  And about Jesse Litsch on Fat Tuesday…He’s still fat.

Well today’s the day that pitchers and catchers report.  While Romero, Lawrie, JoeyBats, etc. have been holding workouts the past few days, the first official P’s and C’s workout is tomorrow, with everyone else due in at the end of the week.  Start getting excited.

As for spring training, it seems that there will only be a few battles this year.  Left Field will be the most interesting, with Eric Thames and Travis Snider fighting it out.  The 5th starter battle is between Dustin McGowan, Kyle Drabek, and apparently Aaron Laffey, with Deck McGuire and Drew Hutchison said to be right about there as well.  Backup IF will be between Omar Vizquel, Luis Valbuena, and Mike McCoy. The last bullpen spot looks to be a battle between Luis Perez and Jesse Litsch, with Perez probably getting the spot as a Lefty.

Offseason Overview  Whats left to be said.  After all the ranting and raving,  Darvishing and Princing, we have our team, devoid of those two guys. If I were to sum up the offseason for the Jays, I would say it was a Failure to Manage Expectations. Prior to the offseason, everyone was on board, excited, happy, and sold on AA’s plan of building the foundation, stockpiling prospects, developing the young talent, getting greater value by acquiring talent through trades and not free agency, not rushing the rebuild, doing it right, and ‘when the time came’, and only then, getting the final pieces through free-agency, the Morris’, Winfield’s, Molitor’s, Stewart’s, etc.

Then came the rumors.  With the team armed with a deep-pocketed media conglomerate as owners, and Beeston saying the team could support $120-140MM in payroll, the Hot Stove chatter put the Jays up there with the Marlins, Angels, Rangers as teams who would be the offseason’s big spenders. The Twitter/Blogosphere had the Jays bidding the highest for Yu, and had Blue Jays fans celebrating the team finally being relevant again. Rumors of the Jays being in the running for Prince were rampant, after all, his dad played here, and visions of a JoeyBats and Fielder 1-2 punch had fans planning the parade.

Of course, none of that was to be.  And did we really expect it to be?  After the last 2 years of AA preaching The Plan, The Plan, The Plan, maybe it was wishful thinking on our part that he’d forget The Plan and ‘go for it’, but he never intended to do so.  AA is not innocent in all of this either.  Indeed, he has always had a veil of secrecy, a no-comment policy, no exceptions, honed from years of watching JP Ricciardi make an ass out of himself with his big mouth, but you have to believe that the buzz in the city surrounding the Jays was something that he and Beeston loved, something they had not had in years,  and something that they were loathe to put out, so they let the buzz continue. They let the rumors get out of hand, in turn, allowing the Jays fans’ expectations to become more and more unrealistic. Failure to Manage Expectations.  If they had come out early in the offseason and said they didn’t plan to spend like the Marlins and Angels on free agents, come out early in the Darvish rumor cycle after the bids were submitted, and denied their bid was $50MM+, had they said Prince was out of their price/term range (AA actually did say this, but later in the game than he should’ve), and gone back to preaching The Plan, The Plan, The Plan, that everyone loved and was on board with, there wouldn’t be this feeling of doom and gloom surrounding the team.  The fact is they did not put out the fire, because they loved the buzz the false rumors were creating, and that’s AA’s and more so Paul Beeston’s fault. Failure to Manage Expectations.

Do I believe that Beeston was lying when he mentioned the $120-140MM payroll? No, I think we’ll get there, as The Plan progresses, and the talent develops as AA has always said it would. We were fooled into believing that it would start this year, and shame on us.  Shame on management, though, for allowing this to continue, while reaping the rewards of the buzz in the city.  Shame on management for not getting out in front of this to set the record straight, but instead throwing cold water on it here and there by introducing terms like ‘payroll parameters’ and implying that it was the fans who would have to step up and increase attendance, before the payroll was increased.  The same fans, mind you, who have supported this team for 18 straight non-playoff seasons.  This is where the frustration lies.

So here we are. Back to The Plan. Take away all the rumors and unrealistic expectations about the offseason, how did we do?  AA said the goals were as follows:  Front of the rotation SP, Big Bat, 2B, and rebuilt bullpen.  He got the latter two covered, and did a pretty good job there, having Kelly Johnson accept arbitration, acquiring Darren Oliver, and Francisco Cordero via Free Agency, and Jason Frasor and closer Sergio Santos via Trade.  A front of the rotation SP and big bat, however, were not to be.  The price, in terms of prospects needed to complete the deal, were too high for Latos and Gio Gonzalez, per AA.  As for the big bat, apparently Carlos Beltran did not want to play on turf, so that nixed that.  End of the world? No.  If one or more of the SP’s not named Ricky Romero can step up, as they have the potential to do, we’ll be fine there.  If Snider or Thames, especially Snider, can play  up to his immense talent, we’ll be more than alright there.  Building the system, developing the prospects, that was The Plan, and it’ll have to work for us to be competitive in those areas, and contenders in 2012.

Another Offseason is completed, and spring training is here.  While we may not rejoice as Jays fans, as Marlins, Rangers, and Angels fans are this spring, we still have The Plan, and its a pretty good one.  Lets sit back, relax, and see how it unfolds.

Welcome to The Blue is Back, a blog about the 2012 Toronto Blue Jays and beyond.  As it pertains to the team, the blue is literally back in their logo and in their uniforms, but whether the Blue Jays will be back among the game’s elite in 2012  remains to be seen.  As the season unfolds, we’ll discuss the Blue Jays on the field and off, critique media coverage of the team, and try our hardest to look behind GM Alex Anthopoulos’ infamous veil of silence to decipher what the Genius is up to.  For those who look at the calendar and count the days until Pitchers and Catchers report, Rejoice. Spring Training 2012 is upon us.  Lets enjoy the season, and I hope you enjoy The Blue is Back.